New AIDS estimates do not justify complacency says ActionAid 

November 20, 2007: UNAIDS has released new global AIDS estimates. Quotes and backgrounder from ActionAid below, plus a summary of good news and bad news from the UNAIDS report.

While headlines so far are focused on downward revisions of HIV incidence and prevalence AIDS, activists are concerned that the debate on statistics will distract from the real issues faced by HIV positive people.

QUOTES:

Aditi Sharma, head of ActionAid’s international HIV and AIDS campaign says:

“It is not the gap between old and new AIDS estimates that is the scandal but the gap between what is needed and what is being provided to save lives and prevent new infections. Every day 5,700 people die of AIDS and 6,800 people are newly infected with HIV.

“The good news is that that fewer people are dying of AIDS than previously thought. And in some countries this is due, in part, to success of treatment and prevention programmes rather than just a revision of statistics.

“If governments are to meet their commitments to provide universal access to HIV prevention, treatment and care by 2010 they must redouble their efforts, and not allow debates on new estimates to justify complacency.

"We know that a majority of young women and men still lack adequate information and tools for preventing HIV infection. We also know that the number of people needing treatment but not receiving it remains unacceptably high.

"The nature and scale of the epidemic varies dramatically between and within countries. There is a serious need to invest in better data collection and analysis if countries are to reverse the epidemic with more effective programmes and appropriate, well-targeted funding."

BACKGROUND

Most of the decline (70%) is due to better data collection and methodologies being employed and lowering of estimates in six countries Angola, India, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. India revised its figures significantly from 5.4 million to 2.5 million earlier this year which impacts on the global total.

Earlier estimates relied mostly on sentinel surveys at ante-natal clinics, however more countries are now beginning to supplement this information with random sampling as part of national household or population based surveys.

While all methodologies have their limitations these broader surveys are more representative of rural population and men in particular. In most cases, new methodologies have resulted in lowering of estimates.

While pundits have already begun to focus on how AIDS was allegedly “over-hyped” in the past, we mustn’t forget the real issues. The long-term and exceptional impact of the epidemic is a reality and the gap in access to prevention, treatment and care remains unacceptably large. The daily death toll which now stands at 5,700 is preventable.

Those living with HIV still face violations of the right to life (and health, education, employment) and right to dignity. It is still the case that women, children, men who have sex with men, sex workers, injecting drug users, prisoners and migrants bear the brunt of the disease and the associated stigma, discrimination and rights violations.

SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS FROM UNAIDS ‘2007 AIDS EPIDEMIC UPDATE’

Key 2007 stats:

• 33.2 million people living with HIV, of which women make up 50% of the adults

• 2.1 million deaths, with 76% of these in Sub-Saharan Africa

• 2.5 million new infections, with 68% of these in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Women are 61% of those living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa and 29% in Asia

Good news:

• The epidemic is stabilizing in many countries with new infections having peaked in late 90s.

• In Africa: Cote d Ivoire, Kenya and Zimbabwe show a decline in national prevalence

• In Asia: Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand show a decline in national prevalence

• Expanded access to treatment and prevention programmes is showing results (global reduction in deaths and no of new infections).

Bad news:

• AIDS remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide and is still the primary cause in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Each day 5,700 AIDS deaths and 6,800 new HIV infections

• Some of the decline in national prevalence is due to very high mortality– due to lack of access to antiretroviral treatment.

• Southern Africa as a sub region is the epicenter and accounts for 35% of all people living with HIV and one third of all new HIV infections and AIDS deaths globally in 2007